Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
UFC 300 has finally arrived and mixed martial arts fans have never seen a fight card with as much depth or star power.
There are 12 current or former UFC titleholders, a two-time Olympic champion, and the hottest prospect on the UFC roster featured on Saturday’s stacked card.
Complete UFC 300 bout order and predictions below.
MAIN CARD
— Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill (five rounds)
— Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan (five rounds)
— Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway (five rounds)
— Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan
— Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic
— Calvin Kattar vs. Aljamain Sterling
— Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison
— Sodiq Yusuff vs. Diego Lopes
— Jalin Turner vs. Renato Moicano
— Jéssica Andrade vs. Marina Rodriguez
— Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller
— Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt
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CAGE LOCKS
The panel is looking to rebound from a two-event losing streak. Which outcome do they think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Bo Nickal wins by TKO/KO or Submission -700 (FanDuel)
With the pace that Bo Nickal puts on and with Cody Brundage’s tendency to tire, I expect that Nickal does what he is expected to do after having a main card slot bestowed upon him as the promotion’s hottest prospect, which is score a finish.
Dan: Kayla Harrison to win outright -425 (DraftKings)
Scared money don’t make money… unless it’s placed in a parlay! We need to hit a parlay soon and I don’t see how Kayla doesn’t get her hand raised here. Yes, the weight cut is an issue but the two-time Olympic gold medallist looks ready and has a history of performing on big stages. Look for that trend to continue Saturday.
Mike: Jalin Turner win outright -225 (BetWay)
Another risky parlay pick on my end but we want a profitable number and Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan to begin Round 2 at short odds just wasn’t floating my boat even though it is a much safer pick. It’s UFC 300 so we’re going big! The second this matchup was announced I thought it was favourable for Turner who flies under the radar at 155. I think Moicano will have difficulty taking Turner down and gaining back control. Turner keeps it upright and puts on a show. If ‘Money’Moicano wins via RNC I’ll donate some money to a charitable cause he supports or something because something positive has to start coming out of these parlays we’re blowing, many of which are my fault!
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: +104 (to win $104)
2024 Record: 4-8
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$291.73
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OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Nickal vs. Brundage Ends by Submission -115 (FanDuel)
Staying with Nickal vs. Brundage, I expect the most likely outcome of this fight is that it ends in submission. Nickal’s path of least resistance is on the ground and Brundage, who has several submission wins via choke will know that as well. If there is a finish in this fight, which the odds overwhelmingly expect there to be, I believe that a submission is the more likely outcome.
Dan: Garbrandt and Figueiredo does not go to a decision -175 (DraftKings)
First fight of the night, with the lights on bright and two knockout artists swinging for the fences…someone is going to sleep before the end of Round 3 in this one.
Mike: Alex Pereira -130 (DraftKings)
Jamahal Hill can absolutely win this fight. If he wasn’t coming off a torn Achilles he’d probably be favoured with the power to knock out the current champ. He has plenty of ways to frustrate Pereira, volume being one of them. Despite all of Hill’s power and savvy, there are holes in his striking defence I think “Poatan” should be able to target and exploit. Not my favourite favourite if we’re being completely honest but we need someone to take action on the main event, right?!
Aaron’s favourite record: 7-5
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$55.43
Dan’s favourite record: 7-5
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$66.53
Mike’s favourite record: 5-7
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$390.85
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HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Kayla Harrison wins by TKO/KO or Submission +135 (FanDuel)
Harrison has a tough assignment in her first UFC bout, but she has great finishing instincts and I expect that if she is able to get the fight to the ground that both a submission or finish via ground and pound are in play. To get a finish at plus money when she is such an overwhelming favourite is good value.
Dan: Jim Miller +154 (DraftKings)
Jim Miller could very well steal this one here. Bobby Green is coming off a KO loss to Jalin Turner in January, his second defeat in his last three bouts. I see two veterans trending in opposite directions. Take Jim Miller at plus money here.
Mike: Yan Xiaonan +380 (BetMGM)
There are so many dogs I love on this card and the props, oh the props! Seriously though, there are literally a dozen fights at UFC 300 in which I see the underdog having a realistic shot at winning. This could end up being a highly profitable card if you pick your spots wisely. Maybe we see Zhang put a whooping on Xiaonan and this wager looks silly in hindsight. That’s entirely possible, especially if she can take the fight to the ground with relative ease. Carla Esparza’s win over Xiaonan is not a bad game plan to follow if you’re the defending champ. These fighters are more closely matched than the odds would suggest so I’m taking a not-quite-dart-throw longshot here.
Aaron’s underdog record: 6-6
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$276
Dan’s underdog record: 3-9
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$495
Mike’s underdog record: 6-6
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$157
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DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Marina Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO +500 (FanDuel)
While Jessica Andrade looked great as an underdog in her last fight against Mackenzie Dern, there is a reason why she was the underdog, which was that she was on a three-fight losing streak where she had been finished in all three of those fights. I picked Andrade to defeat Dern because it was a great stylistic matchup and while the performance was impressive, there were still times where her striking defence was exposed and Dern was landing big, winging shots. A more precise striker like Rodriguez will be able to capitalize on situations where Andrade’s striking defence is not on point.
Dan: Yan Xiaonan wins in Round 5 or by decision +550 (Unibet)
This one could very well be headed to a decision. I don’t think Xiaonan is as much of an underdog as the odds state. Two evenly matched opponents, Xiaonan has more than a puncher’s chance here. With two outcomes in play here, this is worth a shot.
Mike: Holloway by KO/TKO in Round 3/4/5 +1200 (FanDuel)
More than anything I hope Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway both emerge from this fight healthy as it is highly probably neither man will be the same after UFC 300 is complete. If Holloway can effectively handle Gaethje’s leg kicks I think he can avoid most of the power and begin to take control the longer this fight goes. Nervous just thinking about this one. If you are a fan of low-stakes dart-throw wagers in MMA like I am then you’re probably salivating looking over this fight card.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 1-10-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$500
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-11
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$400
Mike’s dart throw record: 3-8-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,300
